As discussed with some of you on email, my list for 2013 is as follows:-

1.  Main Pick - Indiabulls Power at Rs 11-12 (TP: 24)
2.   Indiabulls |Securities - 10  (TP: 14-16)
3.  Swelect at 130 for dividend
4.  Alok Industries at 11 for TP 17
5.  Continue picking Smartlink at 50
6. SJVN looks good at 18.50


Thats all

Regards

HOW HAVE WE DONE THIS YEAR - PART 2

Please read the previous post before reading this one. We have analysed our recommended portfolio for 2012. The returns as on date for our portfolio recommended in Jan 2012 will be as follows:- 

    

      (a)  If held without selling : 39% including all dividends

      (b)  If sold at near 52 week highs : A whooping 64%  

          without dividends of course.

2.  What really matters is how have performed against the benchmark CRISIL RATED Mutual Funds or indices for the least 12 months. All references are from Moneycontrol website :-

    (a)  ICICI Prudential discovery - 18.2%

    (b)  Birla Sun Life - 18.6%

    (c)   HDFC Top 200 - 7.5%

    (d)  Reliance Equity - 19.5

IN SHORT- WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BEAT THE BEST OF THE FUNDS BY ALMOST 20%  !!!

3.  Aristotle said - "One swallow does not a summer make, nor one fine day". 

4.  The proof is in the pudding. If we continue to beat  the benchmark indices by such margins as we have done in 2012, then we can justly say - We have been graciously granted favour and Wisdom in this field. Can we repeat it - GOD WILLINGLY ... YES

HOW HAVE WE DONE IN 2012 - PART I

Analysis of a 15 Lakh portfolio of stocks recommended for 2012

It has been a long break from blogging . This write up is to analyse our investment portfolio that was recommended in Jan 2014. We are at the end of October. So how have we performed with our portfolio ( 100000 for each of the 15 stocks = Rs 15 Lakhs) . 

SNO	SCRIP	REC PRICE	YH	% P	DIV	CMP	% P	LAKH =	LAKH (YH)	DIV
1	PFS	11.5	18.05	57	0.00	15.5	35	134783	156957	0
2	BALMER LAWRIE	475	664	40	28.00	643	35	135368	139789	5895
3	GEODESIC	40	65.6	64	0.00	39.7	-1	99125	164000	0
4	GEOJIT	16	23.25	45	0.75	22.7	42	141875	145313	4688
5	IBULLS POWER	9	20.7	130	0.00	12.5	39	138889	230000	0
6	GRUH FINAN	575	1115	94	2.30	915	59	159130	193913	400
7	CERA	175	405	131	0.00	374	114	213714	231429	0
8	SONATA	22	24.95	13	0.25	22.9	4	103864	113409	1136
9	SMARTLINK	45	62.5	39	2.00	51	13	113333	138889	4444
10	NHPC	19	22.45	18	0.70	21.5	13	112895	118158	3684
11	SJVN	19	20.9	10	0.94	19.6	3	103158	110000	4947
12	ANANT RAJ	44	87	98	0.40	82	86	186364	197727	909
13	ZENSAR	140	302	116	7.00	240	71.4	171428.6	215714	5000
14	PIRAMAL HCARE	390	562	44.1	17	494	26.7	126666.7	144103	4359
15	STERLITE TECH	28	47	67.86	0.3	31.4	12.1	112142.9	167857	1071
	1							2052736	2467257	36534
% Returns if held till now								39
% Returns at Year High								64

RELIABLE PICKS FOR 2012

Picks for LT Wealth Creation.  My 14 picks out of the 20 I have shortlisted  for a 3-5 term horizon would be as follows


(a)  PTC India finance at 10 or PTC India at 45
(b)  Balmer Lawrie at 475
(c)  Geodesic at 40
(d)  Geojit Financials at 16
(e)  Indiabulls Power at 9-10
(f)  Gruh Finance at 520 odd
(g)  Cera at 170
(h) Sonata Software at 22-23
(i)  Sterlite Tech at 28
(j)  Piramal Healthcare at 350
(k)  Smartlink between 40 and 45
(l)  SJVN / NHPC at 19
(m) Anant Raj at 40-45
(n) Zensar Technologies


I see these stocks as Long Term Wealth Creators. All the stocks may not be value stocks in the real sense , but they definitely will give returns in excess of the best fixed deposits etc. They have a limited downside. A greater detailed research follows. One or two of these stocks have some outstnading issues that need to be discussed here. For e.g Geodesic FCCB issue.

2012 - What would be My Picks

1.  When you do an analysis and put it on a public space such as this blog, there is always a fear of being caught on the wrong foot.  Graham had written in his book about two traits that an investor must have - Timing and Pricing. I am poor at the former..... The latter ... I am still finding out.


2.  Stocks I will be tracking this year with reasons. I have aimed to limit my area of coverage to 20 stocks and I am listing the few stocks I believe are available at compelling valuations with reasons. Detailed analysis will follow in the subsequent posts.


3.   Smartlink Network.  The stock is available at 48. I had recommended this stock earlier (sometime in October and later in November  ) at Rs 38 . The reasons are as follows:-


      (a)   The company even after paying a dividend of Rs 32 last year is  
       sitting on approximately 300 crores cash ( 3 cr shares - 100 Rs / share).


      (b)    The promoters are buying aggressively from the secondary market     
       inspite of having a stake in excess of 67 %. That for me is a very   
        positive        point


       (c)   They have the experience of  manufacturing more than 8 million
      motherboards units at their  Goa facility which  is being upgraded to  
      undertake the manufacturing of IT products which will also be capable of 
      doing OEM/ODM manufacturing.


      (d)   The promoters have been relatively clean, forward looking and    
       successful in their ventures.


So in all, this company is trading below its real value. In addition, the other businesses like Digilite motherboards, Digisol(which they claim is now 2 in its area of expertise in the Indian market) is valued at Nil by the Market. This is a " Period of Sale"  ..... " Invest 38... Get 100 ".