Saturday, January 3, 2015

Next Bull Run - Will it be the Housing NBFCs

HOUSING FINANCE COMPANIES - NEXT RUN ????
SN Stock CMP Assets Mkt Cap Sales NP BV Eq M/A M/S S/P M/P P/BV EPS PE Yield Promo Points
      A M S P B                      
1 IB Hsg Fin 455 34000 17000 5225 1500 163 67 0.50 3.3 28.71 11.3 2.79 45.2 10.1 7 28 58
2 HDFC 1172 140480 184230 24145 5440 179 312 1.31 7.6 22.53 33.9 6.55 34.8 33.7 1.19 0 33
3 LIC 467 79000 24000 9200 1320 149 101 0.30 2.6 14.35 18.2 3.13 26.1 17.9 0.96 70 41
4 Gruh 297 6200 10800 850 180 33 36 1.74 12.7 21.18 60.0 9.00 9.8 30.3 1.01 59 38
5 Dewan 420 37500 5400 5000 530 278 129 0.14 1.1 10.60 10.2 1.51 41.2 10.2 1.9 39 66
6 Repco 700 4050 4400 535 110 119 62 1.09 8.2 20.56 40.0 5.88 18.7 37.4 0.17 38 28
7 GIC 235 4708 1270 625 98 113 54 0.27 2.0 15.68 13.0 2.08 19 12.4 2.6 41 70
8 Can Fin 557 5200 1100 578 76 221 21 0.21 1.9 13.15 14.5 2.52 38 14.7 1.17 43 58
                                     
  1. From a value investment perspective, the top 03 housing firms would be GIC,Dewan , Ibulls Housing and Can Fin. GIC seems to be the most undervalued stock while Indiabulls has an excellent dividend yield. Its downside may be limited. Dewan while scoring on  parameters has a relatively poor operating margin as seen in column S/P and that will remain an area of concern.The India bulls promoter holding has significantly dropped this quarters as the orginal 03 promoters have split and 02 of them are not reflected in the current holding. 
  2. These values have been taken from websites available on the open domain and are rounded off for ease of calculation . I have not taken into account investments made by these companies into other entities  such as HDFC stake in HDFC life etc.
  3. Of the 03 shortlisted , GIC is like a PSU (LIC) and may have its associated problems. Repco while being overvalued has been growing its  top line and bottomline at over 30% in the past few  years. And may continue to surprise on the valuation front.  GIC has managed just about 20% growth and hence has a languishing PE

4.  My personal picks would include IBHF bcos I am also getting a tax free 7% ROI as dividend in addition to increase in valuation with growth ( if you trust the promoters and choose to ignore allegations by Veritas etc... I also have a positive bias as they are ex IITD passouts ). GIC and Repco with those willing to take risk with its high valuations. Please do ur own study prior to making investments and decide ur own entry point!!!

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